I just can't understand why people do it. Maybe it seemed like a "good idea at the time" but when people look back 12 months you look like a bit of a fool.
No, I am not talking about a sportsperson committing multiple "transgressions". I am talking about an IT columnist going into print with their predictions for the coming twelve months.
I looked back at my predictions from last year and - being very generous with my own marking - I could really only manage to give myself a score of three and a half out of 10.
Call me silly, but I am going to have another crack at this. And please, do not make any changes to your business model or throw away your plans based on these predictions - but if I get any right remember where you heard it first!
The theme for this year will be climate change and obesity. Two issues that everyone sitting in their 4WD while waiting at the fast food drive-through blames squarely on "the Government".
My first prediction is that by the end of the year, we will have notebooks that are able to be recharged by climate friendly means. This will include notebooks with solar panels but also an external handheld generator with a handle that you spin to add some juice to your battery. The generator is a great idea as it is a climate-friendly way to charge your notebook and it is a form of exercise. Then you could sit in your 4WD at the drive-through window while you crank the handle.
While on the theme of exercise and power generation, my next prediction is that the government will introduce a new tariff scheme for all electricity generation companies. They must pay consumers for power they generate at a 5:1 ratio compared to power they consume.
Traditionally this has been by way of photo-voltaic cells but the new ratio will mean that a new range of exercise equipment will be created. Your exercise bike will plug into a specially adapted wall socket to pump electricity straight back into the grid. You get paid to exercise - helping the environment and losing weight!
Still related indirectly to the concept of climate change, the NBN still isn't fast enough or widespread enough therefore employees are not telecommuting enough. Malcolm Turnbull will use the extra time he has on his hands and his OzEmail experience (along with his small fortune) and seed an NBN with an interesting twist. Every time you use your NBN, a Gardenwall with a Liberal Party advertisement - and Malcolm's mug - will appear. You will have to click "I Agree to vote for the Liberal Party" on the Gardenwall to use the connection. The Kyoto targets can be met simply by employees telecommuting.
My fourth prediction is that Windows 7, with its multi-touch features, will see a plethora of all-in-one PCs hit the market. The manufacturers will finally get all-in-one PCs right and the touchscreen all-in-ones will see a major comeback led by desktop PCs. Multi-touch notebooks won't start appearing in numbers until 2011.
I predicted last year that netbooks would be dead by the end of 2009. That didn't quite happen but I definitely believe that the ultra-portable market with next generation SSD drives, increased battery life and OLED screens will see the death of the Netbook as people see that there just isn't enough notebook in a netbook.
Is this finally the year for cloud computing? My bold prediction is that cloud computing - in Australia - will
still only be used by less than 3 percent of the population as Internet speeds and reliability still can't support the cloud concept fully. The exception will be Liberal Party voters who will have such a great broadband environment that they will embrace the concept and get as high as 15 percent usage - but 15 percent of 20 percent is still only 3 percent overall!
The advanced speeds of 3G services and decreased pricing plans will send satellite the way of the Dodo and will even see a huge decline in the number of Wi-Fi hot spots across the country.
Finally I predict that Google's new predictive real-time web search drop-down will be used to forecast future sales.
I have just used the numbers in Google Search to see that 30.7 million people have searched for the PS3 console but 36.4 million people have searched for the Nintendo Wii - I predict the Wii will soon outsell the PS3.
Going a step further, stockbrokers will use this tool to predict the next drop in world stock markets. Just before that occurs, they will advise their clients to pull their money out of the markets - thereby causing a crash and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy!
Of course, the best way to predict the future is to create it. I wish you all the best creating a magnificent IT future for 2010 and please send me your number one prediction at mathew.dickerson@smallbusinessrules.com.
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