The annual SEMICON West conference and exhibition in San Francisco has opened in a bullish mood with both analysts and industry figures predicting record growth rates for the year.
Stenley Myers, president of industry association SEMI, reported that in May semiconductor sales went above the pre-recession high of July 2008 for the first time.
A basket of eight analyst predictions for the year's sales rose from 14.9 per cent at the start of the year to 28 percent now and FAB spending rose 117 percent in 2009 to support growing demand.
“This year will be a record year for semiconductor sales and unit shipments, something we've never seen before,” Myer said.
“The industry is clearly back on track.”
The growth in the PC and mobile phone market is expected to drive demand, with Gartner predicting growth in these areas at 22 and 14 percent respectively this year. Samsung is also ramping up flatscreen production significantly, spurring further demand for chips.
Stable prices are also a factor he said, and the industry's FABs were now working at 93 percent of capacity. It was all so different from last year he said.
“Talk about falling off a cliff, we really did last year from the peak of July 2008,” he said.
“We hit bottom by April 2009. The slope of the drop off only hints at the extreme measures the industry was taking at that time to preserve capital and stay alive, to keep shipping and keep staff on the payroll.”
The future growth of the industry was not assured he said. In the short term the economy could falter but in the long term Myers said he was very concerned at the lack of R&D and test spending in the longer term.
Traditionally the industry has invested 13-15 percent in this area but this was still now in single figures.
“The semiconductor industry needs funding for innovation,” he said.
“I'm concerned we are not investing enough to build new innovative processes.”
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