Partners warned about DRAM shortage at Canalys Forum APAC 2025

The global DRAM shortage was one of the many hot topics at this week’s Omdia Canalys Forum APAC in Da Nang, Vietnam, with partners warned to “be very careful” about hardware commitments.

Attendees, including a significant number of Australian partners, heard a largely positive outlook from Omdia analysts, who flagged channel opportunities stemming from agentic AI, marketplaces, security regulations and APAC market needs, among other factors.

But the downside of the eye watering level of spending on AI compute infrastructure is a shortage of DRAM.

“There will be no available memory in the market through 2026,” Steve Brazier, co-founder of Canapii and an Informa Fellow, told Omdia Canalys Forum APAC attendees.

“Suddenly, instead of the PC and server companies being the biggest [DRAM] customers, the hyperscalers are the biggest customers – and the hyperscalers have bought everything,” Brazier said.

Predicted flow-on effects include PC vendors reducing minimum RAM configurations, low-end devices being discontinued and device makers shifting memory into higher-margin models.

He predicted constrained supply would lead to negative PC growth in 2026.

“If you listen to the whisper numbers in the PC market, people will still talk about 2026, after a very good 2025, having positive growth – 3,4,5 percent. We find that surprising. We suspect the PC market will turn negative in 2026, not because of demand, but because of supply. There simply isn’t enough memory.”

Partners with customer contracts to fulfill in the next 12 months – contracts that depend on device supply – should “be very careful”, in Brazier’s view.

He encouraged partners to secure inventory now. “Anyone with inventory wins,” he quipped.

Stockpiling and duplicate orders expected

Brazier predicted that channel behaviour would distort the market. “Many of you are going to be placing duplicate orders to try and get whatever you can,” he said, suggesting that this would “create chaos in the ability of anyone to work out how strong the market really is”.

Brazier encouraged partners to engage vendors early. During past shortages, he said, “the US market soared as the American companies kept their friends close with supply and the rest of the world suffered,” and he urged partners to “make sure they don’t forget your country.”

“The world has changed, and supply is now the number one issue.”

William Maher travelled to Canalys Forum APAC 2025 as a guest of Omdia.