[Opinion] 10 predictions that won't happen this year

It’s only March, and it already feels like this year has been moving at breakneck speed. Wars have escalated, the King’s brother was arrested, new gun laws have been introduced, Kyle and Jackie-O have split up… and the headlines are filled with announcements about AI transforming industries overnight. Every week seems to bring another prediction about how dramatically the world of work, technology, and business is about to change.

It’s easy to get swept up in that sense of acceleration. The news cycle rewards big statements and bold forecasts. But when I read these predictions, I’m reminded of something Bill Gates once said: “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”

Most predictions aren’t wrong - they’re just early. Or they happen for a different reason than we expected. Or the consequences of those predictions are very different to what was promised. So rather than another list of things that will define the year ahead, here are ten things that I don’t think will happen this year. Not never. Just not yet. And not quite the way the headlines suggest.

1. AI will dramatically reduce the size of sales and channel teams

Unlike some other industries, we’re unlikely to see massive headcount cuts across IT sales and channel organisations because of AI. As users and sellers of technology, our industry tends to sit at the leading edge of adoption, which means our workforce models have already evolved alongside the tools we use. What AI will do is quietly raise expectations. Faster response times. Better forecasts. More coverage per rep. Average performers won’t disappear overnight, but they’ll feel the pressure sooner. The real impact this year won’t be dramatically fewer people - it will be higher expectations, new operating models, and less tolerance for mediocrity.

2. Vendor portals will improve partner onboarding

I can’t see vendor portals improving partner onboarding any time soon. Not because the technology isn’t capable, but because onboarding is rarely just a content problem. New partners struggle with prioritisation, positioning, pricing nuance, and understanding where they fit in the sales motion. Portals are good at providing information, but onboarding is about enabling partners and accelerating their ability to generate profit. Until vendors are clearer about what really makes partners “good”, portals will continue to digitise onboarding, but not necessarily improve it.

3. Outcome-based pricing will go mainstream

Outcome-based pricing will be talked about endlessly this year. It still won’t go mainstream. Most vendors can’t agree internally on what an “outcome” actually is, let alone measure it consistently or compensate sales teams on it. There will be pilots, experiments, and plenty of marketing language doing heavy lifting. The real shift is coming - but it’s still a few years away.

4. Channel programs will become genuinely simpler

Every year someone declares that channel complexity is finally being fixed. It won’t be. Complexity exists because routes to market, buying centres, and partner roles are genuinely messy. Simplification usually just pushes the complexity somewhere else, often onto partners. And the rise of hybrid workforces, along with platforms replacing traditional software, means we’re about to see even more complexity, not less.

5. Vendor growth will come from partner recruitment

I don’t think that growth this year will come from vendors simply adding more partners. If anything, we’re seeing the opposite. Vendors are getting more disciplined about where they invest their time and money, and real growth is coming from going deeper with fewer partners rather than broader with many. Recruiting partners is easy. Making them productive is hard. More organisations now understand that headcount, enablement, and incentives spread thin rarely deliver the outcomes they’re hoping for.

6. Enablement will become truly personalised at scale

This won’t be the year personalised enablement really clicks. Not because the tools aren’t good enough, but because most vendors still haven’t done the hard thinking around segmentation. Nor have they cleaned their data to be able to really understand their partners at that personal level. To create truly personalised enablement at scale, and at the level partners would reasonably expect, requires a serious investment in data analysis that I’m just not seeing.

7. Vendors will finally get serious about partner prioritisation

Most vendors say they are 100% channel. This year, many will say it again. Few will actually follow through. The fear of losing control (and possibly short-term revenue) still drives behaviour: direct sales teams engaging with customers, hiring direct salespeople into channel roles, holding on to underperforming partners, and spreading channel resources too thin. Real prioritisation requires saying no to more investment in direct sales, and investing in your partners. For many, that’s still uncomfortable.

8. Data-driven decision making will replace judgement

Dashboards will get prettier this year. Decisions won’t necessarily get better. Many organisations are still wrestling with inconsistent definitions, incomplete data, and incentives that reward optimism over accuracy. Data will inform more conversations, but it won’t replace judgement. In fact, poorly interpreted data often reinforces existing biases rather than challenging them. Until organisations get more disciplined about how they define, interpret, and act on data, we’ll keep making many of the same decisions we always have - just with nicer charts.

9. Ecosystems will replace traditional channels

This is one of those ideas that’s absolutely inevitable. But it won’t happen in 2026. True ecosystems, where multiple vendors (often competitors) and partners co-create value at scale, are still three to five years away for most markets. The level of maturity required (and the paranoia that exists around competition) is far too great for most organisations in our industry. What we’ll see this year is traditional channels with ecosystem language layered on top. Useful progress, but evolutionary, not revolutionary.

10. This will be the year everything suddenly changes

It won’t. What will matter most this year is the compounding effect of decisions made over the last few years - about partners, pricing, enablement, and focus. Technology will keep moving quickly. Organisations won’t. And the companies that win won’t be the ones chasing every prediction. They’ll be the ones quietly executing the fundamentals while everyone else is distracted by the hype.

Moheb Moses is Managing Director of Channel Dynamics, a specialist channel sales consulting firm. With a career spanning more than 40 years in the industry, he has delivered channel sales training workshops in over 15 countries across ANZ, Asia, USA, UK and Europe.

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