Telco analyst claims mobile data explosion

In a report titled "2008 Australia – Mobile Data and Content – The Wireless Broadband Explosion", Budde examines the rapid growth in mobile broadband and the future of mobile broadband revenues.

According to Budde, mobile broadband revenue in 2009 could start to challenge SMS revenues and could reach $1.5 billion (inclusive of hardware such as data cards, etc.)

“Within this figure, we do include mobile media services such as ringtones, music, games, etc. The value of that segment has been growing very slowly over the last decade and within a year, the operators are already generating more revenue from basic mobile wireless access than they are from their mobile media portals,” he said.

Budde said this is presently predominately complementary revenue for the mobile operators. However he claimed it is expected that over time this will balance out when the mass market starts to kick in, with revenue set to change from complimentary to substitution.

The report claims that as broadband is less developed in Australia than in other developed countries there is a relatively better business case for mobile broadband here.

“However, wireless mobile is still a very small proportion of this mobile data. BuddeComm estimated that in 2008 this was around five percent of this market,” he said. “We also remain sceptical about predictions that wireless broadband could take over from fixed broadband over the next one to two years.”

Budde claimed that although prices have fallen over the last two years, mobile data services remain too expensive for the majority of the residential market.

“It won’t be until IP-based Next Generation Mobile, based on more spectrum, becomes available before we start seeing the development of mass market wireless broadband,” said Budde.

“While some relief is expected when Long-term evolution technologies become available, 4G which would have the bandwidth and the IP efficiencies is not expected until 2012-2015.”