Fighting back

"What Andy Grove giveth, Bill Gates taketh away.”

If you were around for the halcyon days of the 1980s and ’90s, when a new Microsoft operating system spurred PC and hardware sales, you might fondly recall this cutting sentiment.

But in the case of both Windows Vista in 2006 and Windows 7 in 2009, the cycle broke. Home and corporate users jumped off the upgrade train. This led Windows XP – released in 2001 – to accidently become the most long-lived and best-selling operating system in desktop history. XP was so successful that Microsoft extended support and only finally euthanised it last April.

The imminent arrival of the superior Windows 7 and more recently Windows 8 in 2012 and Windows 8.1 in 2013 also did little to spur upgrades. 

For many, the hardware was good enough to do everything they wanted: surf the web, send emails and use Word and Excel. This upgrade malaise was only intensified by 2008’s GFC, which led many to delay their desktop refreshes. Meanwhile, lighter modes of computing such as iPads and smartphones stepped in.

But this could all be about to change. The biggest driver was surely the 21 January announcement of Windows 10. Already, analyst firms point to a small uptick of a few percent in sales last year that will gather steam as Microsoft readies for general availability of the new operating system later this year.

[Related: eight things Microsoft just revealed about Windows 10]

In fact, tablet sales have plateaued: for the first time since the market’s inception in 2010, global tablet shipments dipped year over year, declining in the fourth quarter of 2014 by 3.2 percent, according to research firm IDC.

Meanwhile, Gartner expects the global PC market to grow in 2015 as the decline in sales bottoms out, though Australia is expected to remain flat. The analyst firm also predicts that Windows 10 uptake will be stronger than Windows 7, with 50 percent of PCs in enterprises to be running Win10 by the end of 2018, 25 percent higher than the percentage of PCs that were running Windows 7 in the same timeframe after the launch.

While the analysts are optimistic of seeing renewed vigour in PC sales, in part driven by Windows 10, we’re not exactly sure of Microsoft’s expectations for the new OS and what it will mean for partners. Unfortunately, the US software giant refused repeated invitations to contribute to this article.

All Microsoft would say when pressed was: “January 21 marked the beginning of our Windows 10 journey and there will be lots more news in the coming months, including what this means for PCs and the channel.”

[Related: Australian resellers react to Windows 10]

While Microsoft plays coy, its partners are buoyant. And although it’s early days, the signs are encouraging for hardware and PC sales, says Theo Kristoris, managing director of Australian distributor and system builder Leader Computer Systems.

“We’re seeing a lot of excitement around Windows 10,” says Kristoris. The company has been demonstrating Windows 10 to partners on a prototype system. 

“The first impression was it’s superb; it looks like a winner. The major part is having the one device – if you’re using a PC and Windows 10, and you have a tablet, then pick up your PC, you’ll see everything you saw on your tablet.”

One aspect of the Windows 10 announcement that caught many off guard was the pricing – Microsoft is giving the new version away as a free upgrade to users of Windows 7 and Windows 8.1, as well as Windows Phone 8.1, who upgrade in the first year.

Although Kristoris admits to being disappointed that Windows 10 will be free for the first year – “so it won’t force people to go out and buy it if they have a recent PC” – he expects that sales will “spike” overall “because there’s a lot of PCs that need to be upgraded”.

“Last May, we saw a big spike in sales when Windows XP ended. If this upgrade is as good as we expect it to be, we expect PC sales [to grow].” 

He says Leader sales are up about 20 percent on the same time a year ago. And while tablet sales are flat or in reverse, sales of the two-in-one PC-and-tablet and 14-inch Ultrabooks are growing, he says.

Next: adoption issues