Open source to rocket in 2005

Open source software will influence the VoIP market in a big way next year, according to VoIP pioneer Jeff Pulver, who released his predictions this week in the US.

Pulver, who heads industry standard VON (Voice on the Net) conferences and publications, said open source software for VoIP PBXs was progressing rapidly.

"It will continue to gain momentum, the effects of which will be felt in the next 12 to 18 months," he said.

In his predictions for 2005, Pulver also said some VoIP startups would flame out while others would launch IPOs.

He also said governments around the world would take harder looks at regulating VoIP and, in the US, Congress would consider rewriting the Telecommunications Act of 1996 with an eye to VoIP.

Pulver said the open source software movement in VoIP was gathering momentum faster than generally realised.

He pointed to the effort by Asterisk users worldwide to create a VoIP PBX. "They are developing a sophisticated PBX on a PC with the (capability) of a US$100,000 PBX," he said.

"It will be a world class PBX that runs on Linux. You can have a PBX for the cost of a PC."

The Asterisk PBX ran on Linux and provided three VoIP protocols. The software PBX provides voicemail services with directory, call conferencing and a host of additional telephony calling services.

Its developers maintained Asterisk could merge voice and data traffic seamlessly across disparate networks. "Once it overcomes the stigma of being free, it should take off," said Pulver.

As for IPOs, Pulver predicted there should be some pure VoIP IPOs this year, and he mentioned Vonage Holdings, the leading independent VoIP provider. "And there are others on the sidelines," he said. "Everyone's waiting for them to pop."

Several large VoIP providers " including major telecommunications companies like AT&T and Verizon Communications " have publicly traded stocks and have begun to offer internet telephoning.

Pulver noted that British-based VoIP provider Newport Networks has launched a successful IPO.

"Governments around the world will look harder at VoIP regulation and service providers will respond by stepping up their efforts to deploy industry-based solutions for many of the social issues confronting the industry," he predicted.

Industry needed to address emergency response and interception by law enforcement agencies.

He believed battle lines in the US had been drawn between advocates of VoIP and its opponents as Congress moved towards rewriting the Telecommunications Act of 1996.

He said: "We will find out who our friends are and who has just been paying us lip service."