Global PC shipments expected to return to growth in 2024: IDC

Global PC shipments are forecast to return to growth in 2024 after seeing declines in 2022 and 2023 following explosive growth in 2020 and 2021, analyst firm IDC forecasts.

Shipments for 2023 are forecast to decline 13.7 per cent year over year to 252 million units, with IDC citing concerns around the consumer market refresh cycle, businesses pushing device purchases forward and education budgets still not rebounding in some markets. However the following year is forecast to grow 3.7 per cent to 261.4 million shipments.

"Consumer demand remains tepid at best as the segment continues to face economic headwinds," IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani said.

"Consumer demand for PCs also faces challenges from other devices including smartphones, consoles, tablets, and more, marking 2023 as the year with the greatest annual decline in consumer PC shipments since the category's inception."

The 2024 forecast will have a higher shipment volume than the 259.6 million in 2018, but is also still below 2019 levels.

IDC said the commercial PC market in particular is “getting very interesting”, with AMD and Apple taking more market share for processors at 11 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively, in 2022.

The introduction of generative AI has also prompted IT decision makers to question where to prioritise budgets, influencing future device purchases as AI-capable PCs start to become ready.

One contributing factor to the growth is the move to remote or hybrid work still continuing, with IDC saying many companies are still listening to the requests of their employees on which brands, types of PCs, and whether multiple PCs are needed for their work.

IDC group vice president Ryan Reith said it's hard to have a conversation that doesn't involve AI and where and how to invest.

"Commercial PCs will remain interesting for years to come with technology advances adding an extra element to decision making, but it's important to remember that Windows 10 end of support comes in 2025 and this will drive commercial refresh regardless of whether companies are waiting on more advanced PCs or just needing to update an aging installed base," Reith added.

"It seems clear that Apple sees an opportunity to continue its growth in the commercial segment and this will be an angle to watch closely going forward."