All hail The Cloud. It will increase functionality. It will decrease functionality. It will increase efficiency. It will decrease efficiency. It will destroy resellers. It will save resellers. It will be all things to all people. It will be whatever you want it to be.
Isn't it ironic that we started off with a few very large computers with dumb terminals connected. Then we moved all the power to the desktop and said how silly those dumb terminals were and how inane it was to connect to a mainframe computer ‘somewhere'.
Now we think it's a breakthrough that we'll work with a thin client or virtual desktop and connect to powerful computers in a data centre. Maybe Thomas J. Watson got it absolutely correct in 1943 when he said, "There is a world market for maybe five computers."
There is no doubt that the cloud is the future and the future is here now. How much users use the cloud, though, is determined by a number of factors. At the moment I see that most clients have a hybrid approach to the cloud - not necessarily through choice, but through infrastructure necessity.
Supporting users who are using the cloud poses all sorts of problems for IT technicians. It's hard enough now asking a client if the item they are after is on their desktop or on their server. The client doesn't take a lot of notice. With published web apps and local apps, the users never really know where their application is running from or where their data lives - and usually aren't aware of how they are connected to the outside world.
Having a conversation with a client in this hybrid model can be interesting. Where is your application? Dunno. Where is your data? Dunno. Are you working on a virtual desktop? Dunno. Where are your children? Hold on, I'll look up the app that gives me instant access to their implanted GPS tracking module and tell you their location accurate to within 3 millimetres.
Most IT providers have their clients using the cloud for a motley array of services already. The tool they use for their monthly email newsletter may be hosted. Or their customer surveys might be collated using an online tool. Some home users might have started backing up small amounts of data outside their homes - not really knowing where it is going to. Businesses might have some of their internal procedures hosted on an online wiki or use an online video conferencing tool.
But our clients don't yet trust the cloud for mission critical applications. Sure, use the cloud for an email newsletter service. It's used once a month and if it isn't accessible right now, come back in an hour. No drama. Use the cloud for your POS system that is critical to your business and halts the entire sales process if it isn't accessible? Are you crazy?
The problem with mission critical apps isn't that our clients don't believe in the concept. It is simply one of connectivity. The best applications on the best hardware in the best data centre in the world is of no use if you can't connect. Reliably and quickly.
And that's our Number 1 issue. Most of our clients are regional, and regional areas are very poorly served by internet infrastructure. Until that problem is solved, for most of our clients, The Cloud is just something that brings The Rain.
Sure, there is some vague election-grabbing promise of some thing called the NBN, but that is three years away at best. In the meantime, pick up that can, pull the string tighter and talk slowly into it. OK, so it isn't quite that bad, but when I visit businesses on the west coast of the US or in the heart of London or even in neighbouring Asia, I feel that we are a long way behind. Even more so in regional areas.
Population decentralisation was all the talk some years ago. Setting up reliable and fast internet infrastructure in regional areas is the number one way to encourage business growth from metropolitan areas to regional areas.
Of course there's always the risk that we'll have some huge incident with terrorism or loss of data or privacy breach in the cloud, and the pendulum will swing back to people keeping everything in sight on their own infrastructure.
Until that time, though, the cloud is marching forward - and once we achieve the connectivity across Australia that we all know is possible, the IT world as we know it will change forever.