Regular readers will recall that in the last issue, I divulged a trade secret about technology journalists: namely, that we’re not like normal people.
If you’re a normal person, you shouldn’t necessarily take everything we say or write as being applicable to you. It’s a bold confession – especially given that I’m a technology journalist and would, therefore, like you to go on reading the stuff I write.
It’s what pays my bills. I have kids.
Nonetheless, now that I have pulled back the curtain a little bit, I feel I should open it a little more and divulge something else.
Technology journalists (all journ-alists, really, but we’ll stick with tech for now) are storytellers. We know how to structure a story to be compelling – the principles are really very similar whether it’s space opera, fairytales or quarterly earnings reports. We find the drama. We find the conflict. We find the narrative.
The trick, of course, is that real life isn’t all that much like that. There aren’t easy narratives. Alfred Hitchcock once said, “Drama is life with the dull bits taken out”. He had a point. If you leave the dull bits in, who would want to read it? We have kids, remember.
In the particular case of Apple, there are two prevailing narratives. One is the ‘unprecedented success’ story, which finishes with Apple being the first publicly listed company with a market capitalisation in excess of one trillion dollars.
This story is, of course, closely tied with the “Steve Jobs was a visionary genius” story in which the late CEO was a modern hybrid of da Vinci and Edison who foresaw a technological future well beyond his own lifetime.
The other narrative is the ‘Apple is doomed’ story, which has been kicking around for a good 20 years or so. For a while, it actually looked fairly realistic (think 1996), but then it was replaced by the ‘Apple is too dependent on Steve Jobs’ story and, subsequently, the ‘Apple is doomed without Steve Jobs’ story. Steve looks pretty rosy in either of these narratives, really.
Adherents to the first narrative are deeply invested in the idea that, whatever happens, Apple will keep growing. A trend of market-cap growth has been set, and if the (utterly meaningless) trillion-dollar boundary is not breached it will feel, to these writers, somewhat akin to coitus interruptus. So whatever fantasy is required to fulfil that narrative, it will be provided – the Apple Watch will sell a 100 million units, Apple will release a TV any day now, Tim Cook is in talks to acquire California.
Adherents to the second narrative see doom everywhere, even if they must paint it themselves. Apple must release a cheap iPhone. Apple must release a bigger iPhone. No, even bigger. Apple must release a phablet. Apple must make a watch. Apple’s watch is terrible, Apple has to compete with Google Glass. Apple has to make a tablet that’s like the Surface, for some reason. Apple must compete for market share because market share is all that matters. If Apple does not do these things it will fail. Apple’s failure has felt so close, for so long, to these writers that one imagines they must be very frustrated by now.
Of course, neither narrative is entirely correct; but neither is entirely wrong either. They are simply the prisms that various writers use to try to make sense
out of chaos. I have my own prism – it’s sort of cracked and a bit dusty, but it still works.
If you’re reading this, you’re probably in business, either for yourself or as part of a larger organisation. As such, you know full well that there isn’t a simple story. Success can easily be followed by failure, which can in turn be followed by success.
If Apple grows to be worth a trillion, it won’t have crossed a finish line, thereafter to forever bask comfortably in its wealth. Tim Cook and his team will have to keep working to avoid the next failure. Likewise, if the Apple Watch is a flop it will not be the end of the Jobsian Utopia. Tim Cook and his team will have to keep working to find the next success.
Remember this when you’re reading stories about Apple or Google or Microsoft or any company, really, especially articles that attempt to predict the future – the story isn’t that simple.
Keep that in mind, and you’ll live happily ever after.
Matthew JC Powell is a technology commentator, philosopher and father of two, in no particular order.
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