A pandemic of avian influenza would make 2003's SARS epidemic look like a minor threat, research analysts said as they recommended enterprises review their business continuity and crisis management plans now. Just in case.
Although the "bird flu" - so dubbed because it originates in domesticated birds such as chickens, ducks, and geese - hasn't mutated into a form capable of spreading human to human, the threat is real enough for health officials to have met in Geneva.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently also warned that the H5N1 avian flu variant could, if it combined with an influenza virus already capable of infecting humans, potentially kill millions.
"Include the possibility of an avian flu pandemic in your business continuity planning and crisis management preparations," wrote a pair of analysts at Gartner in a briefing posted on the research firm's website.
"A pandemic would not affect IT systems directly, but would likely cause considerable economic disruption through its impact on the workforce and on business activity."
In 2003, an outbreak of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), primarily in China, killed nearly 200 worldwide and caused disruption of tech firms' supply chains, postponed IT maintenance as workers stayed home, and caused the cancellation of several technology conferences and/or meetings as employees got
skittish about travelling to areas where the illness had been detected.
"Use [your] experience from SARS to plan for a potential epidemic," wrote Gartner analysts Dion Wiggins and Steve Bittinger. "Do not wait for an outbreak before reviewing or establishing contingency plans. Many strategies take time to set up."
IT managers, the pair went on, can plan for threats such as a possible pandemic, because many business continuity plans rely on IT to keep business running even when travel restrictions, quarantines, or vendor problems develop because of a
disease, or the fear of a disease.
"IT managers should ensure that their enterprises plan, from the boardroom on down, for a likely future outbreak whose course and consequences are unpredictable," wrote Wiggins and Bittinger.
Many of their recommendations were similar to those given during 2003's SARS outbreak, including re-assessing business continuity plans, establishing policies for employees working from home (as well as providing them with the means to do so, such as VPN access), and coordinating crisis management plans with workers.
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