Opinion: Pie in the sky

After all, if we stare back down the dark tunnel of history it’s where we began – with a mainframe in a distant room and a bunch of users with remote screens.

Okay, so things are a tad more swish with the Internet making the connections but the basic theory hasn’t changed much. And it works well for both vendors and users, up to a point.

Vendors like it because they only have to deal with IT nerds from huge service providers who speak their language and don’t bother them with silly questions about which colours are available for the keyboard.

Users like it because stuff just works when they turn on the power and they don’t need to install hardly anything at all. They also like it because they only pay a few hundred buckaroos for the “computer” which becomes basically a seriously smart display with keyboard.

Users also pay some fees to their service provider, but hey they’re used to that with mobile phones anyway.

Devices like the Asus range of Eee gadgets fit this cloud-computing model perfectly. Nice and small, no frills, cheap to acquire and fast to boot. Ordinary users would probably even use the Linux versions of Eee as long as the cloud provided all their other needs which they used to get from Windows or Mac.

Which means the vendors who should be worried are those who sell large clunky computers, which will end up with a very niche market, and those who sell large clunky operating systems and applications. I’d also be worried if I sold large clunky computers with large embedded applications suites that only run on my own platform.

The major downside in this nirvana is the availability or otherwise of the Internet. This new generation of cloud-computer won’t be much use for anything without some broadband bytes on tap.

And there will need to be major advances in pricing as well as reliability from the ISPs. Nobody is going to stay happy very long with miniscule download limits leaving their cloud-computer as an over-priced fashion accessory until the end of the month.

But if the ISPs can get their act together they’ll be able to reap rewards that will make mobile phone revenue look like chicken feed. Anyone want to bet the ISPs will soon start singing along with Sol Trujillo in the ARPU song?