Analysis: The political flavours of the NBN rollout

When Telstra rolled out the trial centres in the late '90s for its Big Pond cable internet service - the first home and small-business grade broadband in Australia - engineers joked that exchanges were chosen based on their proximity to where the telco's senior executives lived.

In awarding rollout locations for the second tranche of the National Broadband Network yesterday, NBN Co tended to favour safe ALP seats, which received six of the 14 slots compared to just two for safe conservative seats - the regional primary industry powerhouse seats of O'Connor (Geraldton) in WA and Groom (Toowoomba) in Queensland.

The balance of those areas awarded starter status were marginal seats that the Australian Electoral Commission said last month, based on their performance at the 2007 federal poll, could swing either way at the next election: Mandurah (Brand, WA); Casuarina (Solomon, NT); South Morang (McEwen, Vic); Victoria Park (Swan, WA); Riverstone (Greenway, NSW) and Coffs Harbour (Cowper, NSW).

Labor MPs whose constituents will first benefit from the NBN's promised high speeds were Catherine King (Ballarat, Victoria); Arch Bevis (Brisbane, Qld); Bernie Ripoll (Oxley, Qld); Tony Zappia (Makin, SA); Sports Minister Kate Elllis (Adelaide, SA); Gary Gray (Brand, WA); Damian Hale (Solomon, NT) and retiring party stalwart Bob McMullan (Fraser, ACT).

Conservatives in marginal seats under pressure following the handouts were Liberals Fran Bailey (McEwen, Vic); Steve Irons (Swan, WA) and NSW MPs Louise Markus (Greenway) and the Nationals' Luke Hartsuyker (Cowper).

The ABC considered four of the seats were "key" in the last poll; the next must be held before April although Labor PM Julia Gillard has indicated it would be called this year.

Melbourne's and Sydney's urban centres - well served by ADSL, high-speed wireless and cable internet - missed out in favour of inner-city areas Brisbane, Adelaide and Victoria Park in WA.

And although 11 of the 14 MPs whose electorates will benefit have websites that their constituents will be able to access lickety-split, it may be time for NSW National Luke Hartsuyker (Cowper), SA and WA Labor members Tony Zappia (Makin) and Gary Gray (Brand) to learn HTML or call a web designer because they are yet to stake their claim online.

NBN stage 1: What's a safe seat worth?

• Labor (fairly) safe (6): Bacchus Marsh (Ballarat/Vic); Brisbane (Brisbane/Qld); Springfield Lakes (Oxley/Qld); Modbury (Makin/Qld); Prospect (Adelaide/SA); Gungahlin (Fraser/ACT)
• Labor marginal (2): Mandurah (Brand/WA); Casuarina (Solomon/NT)
• LP/NP (fairly) safe (2): Geraldton (O'Connor/WA); Toowoomba (Groom/Qld)
• LP/NP marginal (4): South Morang (McEwen/Vic); Victoria Park (Swan/WA); Riverstone (Greenway/NSW); Coffs Harbour (Cowper/NSW)
  source: Australian Electoral Commission, National Seat Status (June, 2010)

Who gets the NBN first?

Victoria

• Bacchus Marsh (Ballarat) ALP fairly safe
• MP Catherine King personal website
  
• Election results 2007: 58.15% (ALP) 41.85% (LP/NP) 
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Catherine King at Open Australia

• South Morang (McEwen) key Liberal marginal
• MP Fran Bailey personal website
  
• Election results 2007: 49.98% (ALP) 50.02% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Fran Bailey at Open Australia

Queensland

• Brisbane (Brisbane) ALP fairly safe
• MP Arch Bevis personal website
  
• Election results 2007: 56.76% (ALP) 43.24% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Arch Bevis at Open Australia

• Springfield Lakes (Oxley) ALP safe
• MP Bernie Ripoll personal website
  
• Election results 2007: 64.13% (ALP) 35.87% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Bernie Ripoll at Open Australia

• Toowoomba (Groom) Liberal fairly safe
• MP Ian Macfarlane personal website
  
• Election results 2007: 41.78% (ALP) 58.22% (LP/NP)
• AEC electorate analysis
• Ian Macfarlane at Open Australia

NSW

• Riverstone (Greenway) Liberal marginal
• MP Louise Markus personal website
• Election results 2007: 45.50% (ALP) 54.50% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Louise Markus at Open Australia
  

• Coffs Harbour (Cowper) National Party marginal
• MP Luke Hartsuyker at APH (no personal webpage)
• Election results 2007: 48.77% (ALP) 51.23% (NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Luke Hartsuyker at Open Australia

South Australia

• Modbury (Makin) key ALP fairly safe
• MP Tony Zappia at APH (no personal webpage)
• Election results 2007: 57.70 (ALP) 42.30 (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Tony Zappia at Open Australia

• Prospect (Adelaide) ALP fairly safe
• MP Kate Ellis personal webpage
• Election results 2007: 58.53% (ALP) 41.47% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Kate Ellis at Open Australia

Western Australia

• Victoria Park (Swan) key Liberal marginal
• MP Steve Irons personal webpage
• Election results 2007: 49.89% (ALP) 50.11% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Steve Irons at Open Australia

• Geraldton (O'Connor) Liberal safe
• MP Wilson Tuckey personal webpage
• Election results 2007: 33.45% (ALP) 66.55% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Wilson Tuckey at Open Australia

• Mandurah (Brand) ALP marginal
• MP Gary Gray at APH (no home page)
• Election results 2007: 55.98% (ALP) 44.02 (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Gary Gray at Open Australia

Northern Territory

• Casuarina (Solomon) key ALP marginal
• MP Damian Hale personal webpage
• Election results 2007: 50.19% (ALP) 49.81% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Damian Hale at Open Australia

ACT

• Gungahlin (Fraser) ALP safe
• MP Bob McMullan personal webpage
• Election results 2007: 65.07% (ALP) 34.93% (LP/NP)
• ABC analysis from 2007 election
• AEC electorate analysis
• Bob McMullan at Open Australia