Apple pundits are out of tune with reality

How long have pundits, analysts, bloggers and prognosticators been thrashing the long-deceased equine about Apple’s intention to release a television set? I don’t know, but suffice to say that it has been a long time. Indeed, it has been much longer than it might have taken to develop such a product from the ground up and get it to market. It has been long enough, one might think, for people to know better.

But no, still they persist.

The story of Apple’s acquisition of Beats for $US3 billion plus change has not quelled the rumours. You see, along with Beats comes Jimmy Iovine, entertainment industry icon and visionary. Iovine founded Beats in conjunction with musician Andre Young (aka Dr Dre) to sell high-end headphones. They are in the process of starting Beats Music, a potential competitor to Apple’s iTunes Radio.

What has that to do with TV? Well, if Iovine does become a part of Apple, he will bring with him something that the company has lacked since the death of Steve Jobs: entertainment industry cred.

When Jobs came back to Apple with the NeXT acquisition in 1996, he didn’t just bring NeXT and its tech with him. He also brought a connection to Pixar and its many tendrils in film, TV and music. At a time when the music industry thought digital music was only for pirates, and the computer industry saw record labels as dinosaurs clinging to an outdated business model, Jobs was uniquely placed to speak to both sides with credibility. Apple iTunes didn’t happen by accident.

Without Jobs, Apple hasn’t had the cred that comes with actually making movies and music and selling them. Iovine has that, so he’s a good fit if Apple wants to revolutionise TV.

But even that compelling argument doesn’t overcome the simple fact that there is no money to be made in premium TVs.

Don’t believe me? Ask Sony, which was built on the fact it made better TVs than anyone else. Sony has a track record of innovation, it has the lifestyle-brand cool factor, and it has strong connections to one of the world’s biggest media companies (namely, Sony). Nonetheless, it is contemplating getting out of the TV business.

According to recent reports of the company’s financial performance, Sony – inventor of Trinitron – believes that there is simply no room to differentiate in the TV market on the basis of innovation. TVs have become commodities, and Sony can’t afford to be in a commodity business anymore. It hasn’t abandoned the business yet, but the possibility of spinning TVs out as a separate company has been flagged and is very real.

That’s Sony, which has dominated home entertainment for decades. Sony, which has record labels and movie studios and game developers all of its own. Sony, which makes the PlayStation 4 – as fully featured an entertainment centre as you might like to plug in to your TV.

If Sony thinks it’s time to get out of the TV business, why in the world would Apple want to get in? Apple’s efforts to build an iTunes-style ecosystem behind its Apple TV set top box have certainly been frustrated, and Iovine may help there. But Sony’s similar efforts, with its considerable reach, have been much more successful and advanced – but not profitable.

It all comes back to what I’ve said before: just because people think an Apple-branded TV would be cool doesn’t mean it makes good business sense for Apple to do it. I’ve hedged my bets on this one before, simply because Apple has been known to do stuff that I thought was mad (a portable music player? Pishtosh!), but Sony’s news has convinced me. It ain’t gonna happen.

Postscript: One of the more insane Apple TV rumours I’ve read claimed that the device will essentially be a giant iPad – an ultra-thin, massive slab of touchscreen you hang on your living-room wall and control by touch. The person who started that rumour clearly doesn’t know how either iPads or TVs actually work. Not. Gonna. Happen.

Matthew JC Powell is a technology commentator, philosopher and father of two, in no particular order