1. Augmented reality
Augmented reality is the process of overlaying the real world with additional information - bringing up book reviews when looking at a novel on your cameraphone, for example, or displaying historical facts when you're staring at a monument. It's a technology that companies from IBM to Microsoft have tinkered with, although so far with no more success than a dog pawing at a Rubik's cube.
However, 2009 brought a breakthrough, thanks in no small part to the iPhone. The combination of its camera, processing power, high-quality screen and GPS means that, almost by accident, Apple has created the perfect device for running such services. This has left companies free to concentrate on developing the software, with impressive results.
Esquire magazine experimented with the technology to bring extra content to its articles, with barcodes beneath stories triggering videos and additional information when the smartphone's camera was hovered over them. More useful in daily life are the iPhone apps like UrbanSpoon that overlay the street with directions to restaurants, but that's barely the beginning. The US military is developing an Android app that overlays engines with schematics, potentially turning anybody into a mechanic, while Nintendo's Ghostwire game will overlay spooks and spectres on the real world with the DSi's built-in camera. Swedish firm TAT is even developing an app that identifies people, and floods your screen with information scavenged from the internet.
If this breakneck pace of development continues, augmented reality could prove to be the standout technology of 2010.
2. Motion Tracking
Few tech demonstrations caused as much of a stir in 2009 as Microsoft's Project Natal. Designed primarily for the Xbox 360 console, the full-body motion and audio sensor will provide a completely new way of interacting with games in 2010. Demonstrations of the technology included the rather creepy Milo, a virtual boy who can understand natural speech and read your body language, if Microsoft's video is to be believed.
Yet, as our very own Jon Honeyball commented, Natal is potentially much more than a plaything. The combination of RGB camera, depth sensor, multi-array microphone and dedicated software could make a difference in the workplace. "Face recognition, gesture control, watching what the user is actually doing... A small amount of this wizardry could make a significant improvement to the business desktop," Jon speculated.
Indeed, Microsoft is already moving beyond the Natal concept and is now working on sensors that monitor muscle movements. These would allow you to pinch your fingers to change tracks on your MP3 player while jogging, for example, or squeeze your hand to open the car door when you can't reach your keys (handy when you've got arm loads of shopping).
Most of this could turn out to be blue-sky nonsense, but if Natal does prove to be the gaming hit of 2010, it could really get the world in motion.
3. OLED
Since LCDs replaced CRTs, no earth-shattering advances have occurred in the field of desktop monitors. A steady decrease in response times, a move to widescreen and plummeting prices are all incremental steps, while the introduction of LED backlights makes little real difference to the viewing experience. Organic LED (OLED) technology - in which every pixel emits its own light and no backlight is required - will change all that.
OLED has already penetrated the handheld market, and its advantages - stunning contrast, high power efficiency, easy "printing" onto flexible materials - mean it will inevitably seep upwards into larger or more innovative devices. We've seen luxurious keyboards with dynamic OLED key labels; hi-tech watches with OLED faces; at Intel's Developer Forum we even saw a laptop with three additional OLED screens beneath its main LCD.
We're still some way from seeing OLED monitors or TVs at reasonable prices, but Samsung, the largest OLED manufacturer, has predicted that the technology will be commercially viable for laptop displays in late 2010. That remains an exciting day in the distance, but while we wait we can pass the time with any of the large number of smartphones, media players, digital cameras and photo frames sure to make the logical move to a display technology that perfectly suits their needs.
4. USB 3
USB 3's final specification may have been confirmed in November 2008, but it isn't until 2010 that the super-fast technology will begin to make waves, as component and peripheral manufacturers introduce products that can take advantage of the standard.
It's ten times faster than the near-decade-old USB 2, with the new SuperSpeed mode running at 4.8Gbits/sec rather than the mere 480Mbits/sec offered by the old standard, meaning that a 25GB file can be transferred in only 1min 10secs. USB 3 cables can also power larger devices, with the new wires carrying 150mA of juice compared to 100mA from USB 2.
USB 3 may be backwards compatible, but firms are already preparing products that will benefit from the additional speed and power on offer: the first USB 3 motherboards have already landed in the PC Authority Labs, and a wide range of products - including external hard disks, IP cameras, DisplayLink devices and high-end flash drives - will be unveiled in the coming year.
5. Android marches on
Nobody was particularly overwhelmed when Google Android made its debut in the Dream back in February, although as we stated at the time, that was more down to the lacklustre hardware than the operating system itself. A succession of vastly improved handsets later (such as the HTC Hero), and Android is now the most credible threat to the iPhone OS's sheer desirability.
Android has one huge benefit over the iPhone OS: it isn't tied to a single piece of (albeit magnificent) hardware. That's why international analyst firm Gartner predicts it will overtake BlackBerry OS, Windows Mobile and the iPhone OS to become the world's second biggest mobile operating system (behind Symbian) by 2012.
There's plenty to look forward to before then, however. The forthcoming Android 2 software will offer features such as multiple email accounts (including Exchange), improved camera support and social-networking synchronisation. Google has also lobbed a hand grenade into the back garden of satnav makers such as TomTom and Garmin by offering free turn-by-turn directions on Android 2, a feature that could arrive in Australia in 2010.
With Nokia still busy at the drawing board with the next version of Symbian, and Windows Mobile 7 unlikely to appear until the summer at the earliest, Android is poised to be the smartphone OS of the year. Just pray that it's kept away from netbooks (see our review of the Acer Aspire One D250 on page 44 to find out why).
Next page for 6-10
6. Mobile Flash
In the same way that "Full HD" is now used to advertise just about every flat screen TV, before long there will be no such thing as an "ordinary" mobile phone. They're all smartphones now, according to mobile chip designer ARM, which claims that even the most rudimentary handset will have the power of a netbook before long.
What will we do with all that processing grunt? Run full-fat Flash video and applications, for starters. Adobe is in the process of bringing its fully fledged Flash Player 10.1 to Windows Mobile and Palm OS devices, with Symbian, Android and BlackBerry OS pencilled in for early 2010. Apple remains the stubborn refusenik, although Adobe has found a way to graft Flash apps onto the iPhone without Apple's official consent, suggesting that it's only a matter of time before the two are forced to sign an entente cordiale.
The arrival of the fully featured Flash player will, says Adobe, bring "uncompromised web browsing of expressive applications, content and high-definition video" to mobile handsets. It will also permit desktop-like web applications to run on mobiles, with support for multitouch and gesture recognition built into the software, so that mobile users aren't handicapped by desktop-style interfaces.
It's enough to make you weep for the days when SMS was considered cutting-edge, isn't it?
7. Intel Larrabee
Larrabee is one of Intel's most ambitious projects: a graphics system that uses complex CPU-type cores instead of the simple stream processors found on conventional graphics cards. It's been at least two years in development, but the first Larrabee products are expected to launch during 2010.
What makes Larrabee special? Intel claims its sophisticated processors - based on the same x86 architecture as the company's CPUs - can perform complex mathematical operations much more efficiently than existing graphics systems. At its 2009 Developer Forum, Intel demonstrated Larrabee's capabilities by showing pre-production hardware rendering a moving ray-traced scene, including reflections on rippling water, in real-time. "To do something like this on a conventional GPU would be really quite painful," declared senior research scientist Bill Mark.
As yet there's no official technical specification for Larrabee, no launch date and certainly no word on pricing, so it's difficult to predict its impact on the industry. It's also possible that, at least at first, its gaming performance will lag behind traditional graphics cards from ATI and Nvidia.
But there's no doubt that, as developers get to grips with the revolutionary potential of Larrabee, Intel's baby could push back the boundaries of what's possible in computer graphics.
As we went to press, it was announced that Larrabee had been scrapped, but keep an eye out for the tech being used in other Intel projects.
8. Projectors in everything
Last year, we predicted that pico projectors were going to be big news. We'll admit to being a little wide of the mark there; carrying a separate projector around at all times, just in case you want to use it, didn't stick. We're standing by the prediction, though. Last month showed that projectors are still a hot technology, albeit in a slightly different form.
Instead of lugging a separate unit around, Nikon managed to cram a whole projector into a standard digital camera, the result being the Coolpix S1000pj (see page 66). Although it adds to the cost of the camera, the miniaturisation is so effective that its size is only a smidgen over a standard digital compact.
And that's the key. While there isn't always going to be a convenient white wall and it won't always be dark enough to be effective, on the occasions that the environment suits, having the ability to project an image is brilliant. You won't want to carry a separate projector around all the time, but it's great to have one built into devices, ready to use.
Our prediction: by this time next year, projectors could well be a regular tick-list feature in both digital cameras and mobile phones.
9. Solid-state systems drive
Last year, we confidently predicted solid-state drives (SSDs) would be everywhere by now, which goes to prove two things: first, that hard disks are, well, hardier than we thought; and second, our local baker will once again have to stock up on humble pie.
Why have SSDs failed to take off? One word: price. Corsair's 256GB 2.5in Solid-State Drive costs $900 at the time of going to press. A 1TB Western Digital Scorpio 2.5in drive, on the other hand, cost a shade over $250. Four times the storage for a third of the price? The decision (like the idiot who predicted SSD domination) is a no-brainer.
However, one area where SSDs are making progress is as system drives. Many of the high-end PCs that roll into our Labs these days have Windows stored on a fast-booting, low-capacity SSD, while regular storage is catered for with a sizeable HDD.
This is a trend we expect to see become commonplace over the coming year, as manufacturers attempt to shave seconds off boot times and take advantage of Windows 7's improved support for SSDs.
10. 3D games and TV
Nvidia has already launched its 3D Vision home entertainment kit, introducing many PC users to the active shutter technology that works more comfortably than existing polarised display kits from firms such as Zalman. But in 2010, the leap in take-up could be even greater. Whether it's driven by Hollywood - see James Cameron's Christmas blockbuster movie Avatar, for example - or, as many believe more likely, by live sporting events, 3D is soon to make the move from the cinema into our living rooms.
Not only can gamers already take advantage of 3D, but it's also here for watching movies, as the Acer 3D laptop on page 39 demonstrates. Panasonic has produced a modified Blu-ray player that can play full 1080p footage in 3D, using the same active shutter glasses that Nvidia uses. All the major TV manufacturers are producing big-screen 3D TV sets in anticipation, and the public is increasingly exposed to 3D by a steady stream of (mostly family) movies. It didn't take long for the early adopting minority to grow into the mainstream when HD technology first arrived; the only question remains, is it too soon after that overhaul for 3D TV to snowball at the same rate?
Next page for 11-15
11. The CPU/GPU
There's a very big year ahead in processors, with more than a few game-changers on the horizon. Six-core and eight-core processors, 32nm manufacturing and more will appear this year.
Perhaps nothing will change the processor game so much, however, as the integration of graphics into the CPU, which may spell the beginning of the end of discrete graphics. Surprisingly, it's Intel leading this charge, with the coming "Clarkdale" desktop and "Arrandale" mobile processors, both manufactured using 32nm processes. Clarkdale and Arrandale both have two cores as well as a GPU packaged into a single chip. These processors will be sold under the Desktop or Mobile Core i3, Core i5 and Core i7 brands, as well as the Pentium G6xxx.
The Atom is also getting an integrated GPU early this year in the new "Pineview" model, enabling even smaller (and hopefully cheaper) netbooks and nettops.
Don't expect these products to overtake discrete graphics chips immediately, of course. For a start, it's Intel, which doesn't have the best graphics technology going, and Intel certainly isn't pushing these as high-performance parts. At best, they're going to be equivalent to chipset graphics, and mostly these processors are about reducing the number of parts in a device and thus cost, not about performance.
They're also not integrated chips, as we'll see from AMD's Fusion later in 2011. They're two separate dies packaged into the same chip: a 32nm processor die and a 45nm die that contains the GPU and major "north bridge" components such as the memory and PCI controller. A single die with both GPU and CPU integrated (the GPU perhaps replacing one or more processor cores) is not likely to appear this year, but we know that both Intel and AMD are working hard on such a solution for 2011.
Even so, Arrandale and Clarkdale should be a major blow for discrete graphics in 2010, providing system-on-a-chip solutions for mainstream computing and driving down the cost and size of both netbook and desktop computers.
12. 100 Megabit broadband
When it comes to broadband in 2010, you're going to hear the figure 100 megabit bandied about a lot. ADSL is going to stay much the same, although volumes might go up a little with recent Telstra volume boosts and the new PIPE Networks link through Guam, but basic speeds won't change.
The bigger changes will be happening in cable and fibre.
Spooked at the prospect of 100Mbit fibre-to-the-home, Telstra announced last year that it would be progressively upgrading its cable network this year to support up to 100 megabits. The real question is when and where. Currently, most of Telstra's network supports either the 17-megabit DOCSIS 1.1 standard or the 30-Megabit DOCSIS 2.0.
It completed the upgrade to 100 megabit download/2 megabit upload DOCSIS 3.0 in Melbourne in December, but the rollout for the rest of the country is still very unclear. Telstra has announced that everybody in the country that uses its cable network will be at least upgraded to 30 megabit DOCSIS 2.0 by the end of 2010, but the availability of 100 megabit services outside of Melbourne is up in the air, and may depend on what happens with current legislation to break up Telstra and the progress of the NBN.
Optus, too, is upgrading its cable network this year. It made the surprise announcement in December that it would roll out 100 megabit in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. But when and at what cost had yet to be revealed.
This year's other big broadband development, of course, is going to be the national broadband network (NBN). Not a shared medium like cable, or a jury-rigged and limited system like ADSL, the NBN promises 100 megabit fibre directly to our homes, and will likely completely replace the century-old copper network that's currently in use. Even the roughly 10% of the population without fibre-to-the-home has been promised 12-megabit wireless broadband.
While the NBN is an eight-year project in total that's still very much in the planning stages, the first services are likely to come online in some areas of Tasmania midway through this year. As for the rest of us, who knows?
13. E-books
We're going to go out on a limb and say that this year will be a good one for eBooks. The Amazon Kindle was made available for international shipping late last year, and several other eBook readers are already available (if still a little overpriced), such as the BeBook, the Eco Reader, several Hanvon models, the Sony Reader and several others. And the Apple iPad has just launched.
Most of the currently available eBook readers top out at about 6", which is a little smaller than a paperback, but we'll see larger products released this year. Amazon already has the 9.7" Kindle DX available in the US, and it's likely to be available for international shipping later this year.
Colour, too, is coming. Current eBooks use E Ink, a technology that's thin, looks like real paper and keeps the battery going for more than five minutes - but is only available in monochrome. Several demonstration eBook readers were shown off late last year with colour "paper", however, including a model from Qualcomm that even enabled video. According to Qualcomm, we can expect to see this technology available by the end of the year.
14. Cloud computing
Late last year, Google announced Chrome OS. Its idea was to clear away all the legacy chaff and local applications and focus entirely on the cloud. In effect, Chrome OS will have only one local application - the Chrome Web browser. Everything you want to do will be done inside the browser using Web-based applications.
Early generations of the open source version of the operating system, Chromium OS, are already available for developers, and it's exactly what Google said it was: a fast booting operating system that comprises pretty much only a tabbed Chrome Web browser. There is an applications page, launched by clicking on a Start-like button in the top left of the screen, but it only launches Web applications like Facebook, Gmail and Google docs.
Chrome OS isn't going to be for use on mainstream desktop and notebook computers, but Google thinks it might find a place on netbook and nettop computers where a Web browser is the only application that people really use anyway.
While the concept is certainly interesting, other companies have tried this model in the past and failed. Can Google succeed where Sun and others haven't? Perhaps - it's a different world now - but we wouldn't be too sure of it happening in 2010.
Not to be outdone by Google, Microsoft is planning to go big on cloud computing this year. Among other things, it will release its Office Web applications, which are lightweight versions of its Office applications that run in a browser. They will be offered through Microsoft's Office Live Workspace service, and they will be free for use by consumers. There's also Microsoft's Live Mesh, an online service for file synchronisation and sharing. Live Mesh also provides a remote control service, letting you control your Windows PC's desktop from a remote PC. And there's Microsoft's Azure cloud platform, a hosted services platform that business can use to develop their own cloud computing applications.
15. GPS on your phone
There's no question that 2010 is going to be a huge year for mobile applications. According to analyst group IDC, the number of iPhone applications available will triple next year to 300,000, while the number of Android apps will quintuple to 100,000.
Indeed, we're perhaps most excited by the opportunities on Android, which is unburdened by Apple's vice-like grip on application delivery and is a much more open platform.
GPS on Android phones is looking to be a particularly cool experience, especially after Google opened up Google Maps for Android development in November. This, quite frankly, is going to make every other GPS solution look like Android's poor cousin, since developers will now be able to combine a GPS-enabled Android with Google maps to do things like overlay satellite imagery onto maps, provide Street Views of routes, provide live traffic views and information, enable plain English searches of locations (much as in Google Maps), access information about locations en route and perhaps even read live Internet feeds of current events in your area.
And just to annoy every other GPS vendor on the planet, the service is going to be free. You won't ever have to pay for map updates again.
The downside - and it's a biggie - is that you'll need live Internet access to be able to use this application. Routes may be able to be cached, but you won't be able to (at least in the immediate future) download all of Google maps onto your mobile. It's also likely to churn through your 3G data quota like nobody's business and if you don't have coverage at least at the beginning of your trip you won't be able to use it at all. For all its coolness, it's dependent on an Internet connection, and in many areas of the country that's still a flaky proposition.
Next page for 16-20.
16. IPTV / Video on Demand
IPTV is a technology that has massive potential to change the game when it comes to home entertainment.
While Australians have been spending the last few years getting their heads around digital TV and devices like the TiVo and IQ2, the next phase of home entertainment looks set to kick-in in 2010 - and it involves going beyond TV, to the hundreds, if not thousands, of hours of movies and TV available via the Internet.
As anyone who's ever ventured down the BitTorrent path can attest, downloading TV shows is far from a new phenomenon. But for the most part, it's meant watching those downloads hunched over a computer monitor, not to mention breaching copyright laws.
That's set to change with the arrival of set top boxes in 2010 that bring legitimate Internet movie services to your big screen TV. While TiVo and IQ2 have transformed the TV experience with the ability to record and rewind digital TV, something's been missing: connections to movies and TV via the Internet.
Until recently, the only device like this with access to a serious library of shows was Apple TV. But that's changing. TiVo owners now have access to the CASPA video on demand service, initially offering around 1,000 hours of entertainment. Not only can you watch the shows on-demand, but unlike pay TV there aren't any monthly fees, though not all the content is free, and you'll be wanting to make sure you're with an ISP who doesn't charge you for downloads to the TiVo.
Adding to the excitement in 2010 will be Telstra's T-Box, which is giving BigPond customers access to Telstra's Internet channels (initially only in Melbourne), with no download charges. Xbox LIVE subscribers now also have access to streaming movies at 1080p with prices starting at $4 per movie rental, though the initial list is tiny in comparison to sites like iTunes.
If you're about to change ISPs, choose carefully. Some well-known ISPs are unmetering the data for some of these services, but you need to make sure you've matched the ISP with the service you want.
The other big issue will be download speeds - the Xbox service is said to require at least 4Mbps for full high-definition. Finger's crossed for the National Broadband Network then.
17. Wireless power
If the early signs are any indication, gadgets manufacturers are going to be jumping all over wireless power in 2010. There are already aftermarket wireless charging devices available overseas for the iPhone and Blackberry, and in Australia there's already a big-name wirelessly charged device on the market - Dell's Latitude Z laptop.
So how does the technology work? Induction coils in the charger - typically a device that sits on your desk and looks vaguely like a mouse-pad - and induction coils in the laptop or phone, are employed to transfer power.
The big catch right now is that few products are designed with wireless charging in mind. To charge - say, your iPhone - you'll need to use an after-market case or dock and a charger like the Powermat or Wildcharge (sold overseas). Place your phone in the case and then sit the phone on the charging mat whenever you want to charge it.
While the overall concept has exciting potential, we've a few concerns about the initial products. For one, they're not truly wireless, in the sense that you can't leave your phone or laptop anywhere on the desk and have it charged. The device needs to be sitting on, and touching, the charger. Also, it can take longer to charge your devices this way, and there's the added expense of the charging accessories.
Still, for some devices it's clear that induction charging make sense. One example is the new Energizer Wii Remote Induction Station Charger - a flat pad costing $49 at the time of writing that plugs into your power point and charges your Nintendo Wii controllers whenever you place them on the magnetic surface. Unlike other types of chargers, there's no exposed metal elements that must make contact.
And when it comes to phones, big names like RIM (Blackberry), Nokia and Energizer are teaming up to develop a new wireless charging standard called Qi.
18. DSLR movies
Three years ago the idea of shooting a film on a DSLR camera might have been laughable. Not any more. Documentaries, short films and TV advertisements shot on prosumer grade equipment are already beginning to appear, and in 2010 the trend only looks like getting bigger - Wes Anderson has said his film Fantastic Mr Fox (which reportedly opens in Australian cinemas in early January) was made by taking hundreds of thousands of frames with digital cameras (not the movie type). Admittedly, it's stop-motion, but it's yet another example of how DSLRs are opening up creative prospects for movie-makers.
For a peek at what's possible, head to www.pcauthority.com.au/?160377, where we've collected five examples of short films and TV advertisements shot with Canon's 5D Mark II. The results range from dream-like imagery to the raw footage of the war-zone documentary Battle for Hearts and Minds.
All this should be extremely exciting for budding filmmakers, especially those on a budget. Not only will the new generation of HD video-capable DSLRs give you high-quality footage on a budget, but they offer new ways to experiment with lenses in a way that's limited on a consumer-level video camera.
Two cameras that should push the envelope even further in 2010 are the Canon EOS 7D, and the Canon EOS-1D Mark IV. The EOS 7D, which launched here last year, is generating attention as a cheaper alternative to the 5D Mark II, and as such may prove useful to student filmmakers on a budget. At the other end of the scale, Canon is touting the EOS 1-D Mark IV as the world's first professional-grade camera with full (1080p) high definition video recording. With an expandable ISO rating up to an astonishing 102,400, this should change the game for DSLR movie making.
19. Hybrid cars
for the last few years - either too expensive or too impractical. Not to mention the fact that early versions like the GM EV 1 incorporated the sort of design quirkiness that wasn't exactly everyone's cup of tea. But in the last 12 months it's become clear that hybrid vehicles are about to go from curiosity to the mainstream.
This year will see a watershed moment for the technology when the first Australian-built hybrid, the Toyota Hybrid Camry, goes onto the local car market. The car has a 2.4 litre four-cylinder petrol engine and an electric motor generator, plus a hybrid battery that stores electrical energy. Like other hybrids, the car can switch off the petrol engine while stopped at lights or at low speeds, switching to electric power to save fuel. It's claimed that the car could take petrol usage from around 9 litres per 100km to 6 litres.
And that's just the start. Not only will Toyota follow-up with other hybrids, but Holden is reportedly planning a hybrid version of an Australian icon - the Commodore.
Fuel economy isn't the only thing that's raising eyebrows about the new generation of hybrid cars. The Toyota's third generation Prius, launched last year, has innovations like steering wheel mounted touch controls for radio, air conditioning and to check energy consumption. A Head Up Display (HUD) shows speed and navigation information on the windscreen (on the i-Tech model), and a button on your keychain lets you activate the air conditioning system before you get into the car (without the engine running).
The only sticking point now is the price. You'll still pay a premium for a hybrid vehicle, with a new Toyota Prius setting you back more than $30,000 at the time of writing. Still, these cars are getting harder to ignore.
20. Better Wi-Fi
Until recently, if you told us you were building a home network for gaming or streaming HD movies, we'd recommend you think seriously about Gigabit Ethernet. While more homes are Wi-Fi enabled than ever before, the technology just hadn't convinced us to rip out the cabling and go completely wireless.
Home wireless networks will be given a boost with the evolution of 802.11n networking equipment in 2010. With the standard finally given the official go-ahead, you can expect to see 802.11n become the technology de rigueur for connected homes this year. But that's just the beginning.
While 802.11n already offers significant transfer speeds and range improvements, there is already the tantalising prospect of routers capable of three streams of data, rather than two. Combined with other improvements, this could see speeds of up to 600Mbps. Several manufacturers are reportedly developing devices with three streams.
The prospect of better throughput at greater ranges will be big news for anyone wanting to stream HD video, especially considering real-world transfer speeds are markedly less than the paper spec. In previous tests we found early 802.11n equipment managed was noticeably quicker than 802.11g - around 26Mb/s at 47 metres, compared with 20Mb/s over 30 metres.
Equipment manufacturers seem confident that wireless is ready for home media networking. We're seeing more network media players in the market with wireless, and now there's also an 802.11n adapter for the Xbox.
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